Vegas Days Gone By: The Sahara

I have a deep and compelling interest in abandoned casinos, but one whose loss hit me especially hard is the Sahara, an institution on the northern end of the Strip that closed its doors a few years ago. For starters, it was one of the grand casinos from Vegas's Gilded Age, alongside legendary names like the Sands, the Dunes, and the Desert Inn, frequented by the likes of Elvis and the Beatles, Marilyn and the Rat Pack.  For another thing, I went there many times over the years and, even if the carpeting was a little threadbare, I loved its vaguely delapidated charms. The circular driveway with its minarets was a Moorish marvel. I vividly recall one of our local friends dropping us off there early one morning and watching a casino as its day started, having pastries in the coffee shop and watching other folks have their breakfast, read their paper, or take their morning constitutional around the palm-lined pool area.

It was a fun place, where you could play real $1 blackjack, and play a bonus bet that spun a wheel whenever you hit a blackjack to find out how much you would win, up to fifty bucks! You could scan your player's card and win something, like a free buffet. I walked in once and checked out their lounge, where a rocking band with a fiery redhead singer was running through "Break Out," and she waved me in to join them.  The daughter of Louis Prima and Keely Smith played there, too.

It's being rebuilt as the SLS Casino, which didn't implode or demolish the structure but gutted it and is remodeling it, and adding what look like gigantic glass-and-steel hotel towers, emulating the likes of the Cosmopolitcan and City Center no doubt. While I'm always glad to have a new player's club to join and (hopefully) get some free stuff, I miss you, Sahara. The Strip will never be the same, but then, it never is.

Heading Back to Vegas & Free Rooms Update

We set out from Colorado towards Vegas today, making stops in Albuquerque and Rio Puerco to pick up free promotional chips and free play, and cash in some of our comps for free gas. Since I posted our itinerary, we've been offered two more free nights, from The Quad, so we've extended our trip another two days. Caesar's Entertainment Group, which owns The Quad, is pretty generous with the free nights once you're in their good graces; the only condition for accepting this offer from The Quad was that I hadn't stayed in one of their properties for free within the previous 48 hours. I've received a flyer from them offering three free nights at most of their hotels once a month in March, April and May, and that's in addition to the many special events they invite me to which always include two or three free nights and either a shopping spree or free casino play.

We were thinking of adding on an additional two nights in Laughlin, since we have two-nights-for-the-price-of one coupons from the American Casino Guide, but I found an ad from one of the tour bus operators offering free one-day excursions to Laughlin, including a free buffet and free show tickets, so that might suffice for this trip. We also got an invitation to a birthday party while we're in town; having friends who live in Vegas is a good thing. I also received an invitation to a media seminar at the Orleans from the Las Vegas Review-Journal and thought: why not? They might have some free goodies to scoop up.

The Three Biggest Mistakes You're Making at Blackjack: Part 3

Fun fact: Do you know what the average winning hand in blackjack is? It's 18.5. Which means that, in the long run, 18 is a loser. And that brings us to our third mistake:

3. Not hitting a soft 18 against almost anything

Since 18 is below the average winning hand, it's in your interest to try to improve it whenever practical. I mean, think about it: When you have an 18, what hands can you beat? If the dealer has a 17, you're good. That's it. I mean, sure, you can win if the 
dealer busts, but that doesn't make your 18 any better than a 16. Or a 12.

Since you're never going to hit a "hard" 18 (two 9's or an 8 and a 10, for example), the only 18 that it's really practical for you to hit is a "soft" 18...an Ace and a 7. "Soft" hands are so-called because the Ace can be played as either a 10 or an 11, depending on the impact of the next card you draw on your hand. A 10 or a face card landing on an Ace-7 gives you a total of 18, a much "softer" landing than if you were to draw the same card on a "hard" 18, which, as I mentioned above, surely you are never going to do.

You hit a soft 18 against most of the dealer's upcards for three reasons:

A. As stated above, 18 is a loser in the long run; it's below the average winning hand of 18.5. For the same reason, you never hit a soft 19 (Ace-8); it's a winner in the long run, since it's better than the average winning hand.

B. Most cards you can draw when hitting a soft 18 will either improve it (A,2,3) or leave it exactly the same (10,J,Q,K), so you have little to lose by taking a hit. This is another reason why we don't hit a soft 19: Only two cards can improve it, and most cards will actually make it worse.

C. You can't possibly bust when taking one hit on a soft 18, so it's a free chance to improve your  hand when the dealer's upcard is a 9, 10 or face card, meaning there's a good chance he has you beat. It also means you can double down against the dealer's 5 or 6 without fear of busting.

There are three dealer upcards that you don't want to hit your Ace-7 against. If the dealer is showing a 7, you stand, because if he does have a 10 in the hole giving him a 17, you already have him beaten. Same if he shows an 8, which means you are likely to have a push. And you don't want to hit against a 2, just because the dealer's 2 is such a dangerous card; in the long run you're better off staying and hoping the dealer either busts or draws to 17.

Now go out there and make some money!

The Three Biggest Mistakes You're Making at Blackjack: Part 2

Playing correct strategy reduces the dealer's edge against you at blackjack to as low as 0.5%. Even that small edge is due to one glaring fact: If you bust your hand first, and the dealer busts his hand after all the other players have acted, you still lose. This is why savvy players never hit their 16 when the dealer is showing a 6; if only five cards won't bust you, stand and, assuming the dealer has a 10 in the hole, let them take the next card and hope it busts them instead.

There is one exception to this rule, a hand which although it could be busted by taking another card, is nevertheless a powerful draw, so our second biggest mistake is:

2. Not hitting on 12 when the dealer's upcard is a 2 or 3

All the strategy cards and books will tell you to hit a 12 when you're up against a 2 or 3, but not necessarily why. Well, a 12 is actually one of the best drawing hands in blackjack. Consider: Only 4 of the 13 cards in the deck can bust you on your first hit (10,J,Q,K). That's less than one-third of the cards in the deck. That means if you take one hit on a 12, your odds of not busting are better than two-to-one! If the dealer is showing a 2, then it's in your interest to take a card and try to improve your hand, because the if the dealer has a 10 in the hole then they're in the same great drawing range as you. And that's the good news; anything smaller gives them a killer drawing hand (9,8,7,6,5) or leaves them a long, long way from busting (4,3,2,A). If the dealer is showing a 3, the same applies; you can assume whatever their undercard is, they're in the same drawing range. If the dealer is showing a 4, 5 or 6, however, you need to stand; now there are more cards that could bust them on the next hit, so it's no longer profitable to hit your 12.

So, if you have a 12 and the dealer shows a 2 or 3, you take one hit and then stop, no matter what the next card. Even if it's an Ace. Why? The same reason you don't hit a 13 against a 2 or a 3: The addition of an extra bust card (the 9) means it's no longer profitable to risk busting against the dealer's bustable hand. (I despair of players who I see hit a 12, get an Ace, ponder what to do next, then take a second hit and bust, or worse, take the dealer's bust card. They were so close to getting it right.)

By the way, this move exposes the dirty little secret of basic blackjack strategy, which advises you to assume that any card you haven't seen yet is a 10 or a face card. In actual  fact, this will only be the case less than one-third of the time. (It's the same reason you don't take insurance against a blackjack when the dealer shows an Ace; the odds of him having a 10 in the hole are less than the two-to-one payout offered by the insurance bet.)

So why do we base our decisions on the assumption that the dealer always has a 10 in the hole? Well, for two reasons:

A. Any card we haven't seen yet is four times as likely to be a 10 or face card as any other individual card, since there are four of them (10,J,Q,K), all with the same point value of 10, and, more importantly,

B. As you may recall from our first installment, the math tends to work out the same even if the hole card isn't always a 10. If you have a 16 and you're looking at a 10 as the dealer's upcard, he doesn't have to have another 10 in the hole to already have you beat; anything bigger than a 7 will work, and that constitutes more than half of the cards in the deck. So if you're already beaten more than half of the time when the dealer shows a 10, you might as well assume that hole card is a 10; it's a convenient shorthand for "Mathematically speaking, you are probably toast" and acting accordingly by trying to improve your hand.

Getting back to hitting your 12s when you see a 2 or a 3 across the table: It may seem that every time you take that card, you end up busting. Almost one-third of the time is a lot. It always seemed to me that every time I hit my 12 in these situations I would bust, but after working out the math I take my card without hesitation, and relish those times I'm rewarded with a perfect 9. I love hitting my 12s. Heck, I'd rather hit a 12 against the dealer's 2 than try to decide whether to double down on 11 against the dealer's 10.

The Three Biggest Mistakes You're Making at Blackjack: Part 1

They're an essential part of basic blackjack strategy. Every good book on the subject of blackjack, and every strategy card you look at, will tell you to do them. And yet every day I see people ignore these basic moves, and it costs them money. Even players who think they know something about the game make these costly errors.

They're the three biggest mistakes you can make at blackjack. And in this and the next two installments, I'll tell you why.

First up:

1. Not hitting a 16 against the dealer's 9, 10 or Face Card.

The most money I see players leave on the table is because they ignore this part of strategy. Players are simply afraid to hit a 16 because it's the easiest hand in blackjack to bust; hit any card bigger than a 5 and your hand is history. Even players who will blithely hit a 15 without a second thought are reluctant to hit a 16.

I've even had a player stand on a soft 16 [an Ace-5] and proudly tell me "I never hit a 16!" But that guy was an idiot. This is one reason I prefer sitting at first base; otherwise some fool to my right will stand on their 16 when I want to double down on a 10 or 11, and I'll be stuck taking the 4 or 5 they should have hit.

I'll have players tell me they always stand on 16 and they're doing just fine. They're lying. Because (here's the bad news) if you have a 16 and the dealer is showing a Jack, you're probably going to lose no matter what you do. But in the long run you'll lose less of the time if you hit your 16 instead of standing on it. And losing less is the same as winning more.

So, if you're looking at a 9 or a 10, and you have a 16, you just have to hit it. Why?

Because the math says so, and blackjack strategy is all about the math.

Let's start by assuming you have a 16 and the dealer is showing a 9. There are 13 different cards in a blackjack deck (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K,A). If you have a 16 and the dealer is showing a 9, that means that more than half of the cards that the dealer can have in the hole already have you beat: 8,9,10,J,Q,K,A. Therefore, more than half of the time, you're already beat if you don't try taking another card to improve your hand, and so you have nothing to lose by taking the hit. And more than half the time is all you need to be profitable in the long run.

If you're looking at a 10 or a face card, the situation is even worse if you want to stand. Since if you're in this situation, the dealer has already checked to make sure her undercard wasn't an Ace, which means instead of 7 cards out of 13 giving her a winning hand, it's 7 cards out of 12 (7,8,9,10,J,Q,K), making the odds against her busting even worse.

By the way, let's assume you decided to stay on your 16 and got lucky: you were right and the dealer has a hand that she has a chance of busting (12,13,14,15,16). 

Here's a fun fact: Every bustable hand has exactly five cards that will make them a made hand on the first card drawn. The odds of the next card being any particular card are approximately 7.7%, so that means in the less than half of the time that the dealer has a bustable hand under their face card, they have a 38.5% chance of making a hand.

It also means that when you're faced with a dealer's 9 or 10 against your 16, you still have a 38.7% chance of making a hand on your first hit instead of busting. And while these aren't the best odds in the world, they're better than the 0% chance of winning which you will have more than half of the time.

By the way, I would do the same against the dealer's 8 or 7. What actually got me started working out the math on these hands on my hour-long bus rides to the casinos in Cripple Creek was a conversation I had with a player who never hit her 16 against the dealer's 8. She said her dad told her that when the dealer's showing an 8, he only has a made hand less than half of the time. I figured out the math, and, well, her dad's right up to a point: If the up card is an 8, less than half the cards in the deck that can be his undercard make him a hand (9,10,J,Q,K,A). Well, by the same logic that I hit against a 10, I should stay against an 8, right?

Uh, no. Because whether he already has you beat isn't the only thing you have to worry about. If he has a 2 or 3 in the hole, then he has a hand so good, you'd double down if you had it. Not taking the next card because you're afraid of busting on a 6 through 10 wouldn't do you any good in that case. So the chances of the dealer having a strong card under an 8 actually go from 46.2% (made hands) to 61.6% (adding the 2 or 3). What if his undercard is a 4? A 12 is actually a strong drawing hand, because less than 1 out of 3 cards will bust him on his first hit. So give him a 69.3% chance of having a strong drawing hand. Even in the best possible scenario...that he has an 8 in the hole, meaning he also has a 16...remember, he still has a 38.5% chance of making a hand on his next card. So cumulatively, the odds say staying against that 8 is a horrible idea.

I'd do the same against a 7, even though it's the most marginal of these cases (fewer times he'll have a made hand), because the dealer has one more hole card that could give him a strong draw.

So next time you have a 16 and the dealer's showing a King, go ahead and take the hit. Show no fear. There's no room for fear in blackjack.

Souvenirs, Cheap! And They're Green, Too!

Hey, want an interesting collectible from your favorite casino? Next time you ask your cocktail server for a drink, ask if she'll bring a bottle of water with that. I assume you'll do the right thing and leave her a nice tip (like a buck), but even so you might get a great deal on a souvenir keepsake: Many casinos are now putting their own labels on their bottled water. Save one and take it home and you have quite the conversation piece. Besides, what other collectible can save your life if you're stranded in the desert, or at least help you out if your car's radiator boils over? If you are foolish enough to open it up and drink it, don't toss it in the trash to take up more space in a landfill somewhere; refill it and reuse it! Remember: Reduce! Reuse! Recycle! (Pictured, left to right: Sandia Casino, New Mexico; El Cortez, Las Vegas; Hooters Casino, Las Vegas; Margaritaville Casino, Biloxi; Route 66 "Party of the Decade" Limited Edition, New Mexico)

Hey, here's a bonus collectible for you: The Stratosphere doesn't put any cheap disposable plastic cups in their hotel rooms. Their cups are a heavier plastic, with a faux-frosted-glass finish, and the Stratosphere logo across the front. And: top-rack dishwasher safe! Don't toss them in the trash! Take them home and toss them in the dishwasher! Ask your housekeeper for extras and you can have a set of glasses that will be the envy of all your friends! Hey, anything we can do to make our Vegas trip greener and pick up some cool keepsakes while we're at it.

Why We Love the El Cortez

Many moons ago, when I decided to attend an event in downtown Las Vegas at the last minute, the only place I could find a cheap room downtown was at the venerable El Cortez. They booked me in a tiny room on top of the parking garage, all the doors opening outside to a wraparound balcony. All I remember of the room, where I spent scant moments, was a small space with an even tinier TV set.

But downstairs in the casino, the El Cortez definitely had its moments. I was playing poker when the owner of the casino, Jackie Gaughan, came to the table and joined us. It was hard to miss him since his face was on the casino's player's card. One of the pit crew brought him a case of chips and he proceeded to lose them just like the rest of us. I'd never played poker against the owner of a casino before, so for a relative Vegas neophyte it was pretty trippy.

I had a session at one of their craps tables where I won, if I'm recalling correctly, something like $600. I spent another night there playing blackjack with a dealer from Arizona Charlie's and her father, who was suffering from Alzheimer's. You could tell him all you wanted it was a bad idea to hit that 16 against the dealer's 6; he'd forget it as soon as the next hand was dealt.

I became rather fond of the old El Cortez and its funky old-school downtown charms, even though the general consensus was that it had been on its last legs for years; a block away from the end of the Fremont Street Experience, and not a pretty block at that...a no-man's land where, as my friend Andy Hooper once wrote, "Crack dealers are circling like sharks!"...it was written off as a dusty relic that had been left behind by the behemoths of the Strip and even the little boost that the Experience had given to the downtown casinos.

Imagine my shock, returning years later, to discover that someone had invested in the El Cortez to the extent of expanding it to twice again its original size. What happened? Well, apparently, much of the credit goes to our old friends at Zappos.com, who moved their headquarters into the old Las Vegas City Hall, bringing to downtown thousands of employees who would need dining (and, one presumes wining) options. Dollars poured into downtown as a result, the whole district around and beyond the El Cortez is being cleaned up, and it's now a viable downtown destination.

When we decided to extend our stay by a couple of extra nights in December, I called around and again the El Cortez seemed the best option to get a cheap weekend night at the last minute. The reservation agent I spoke to said she was booking me into the Pavilion Tower. "That's nice," I said, "last time I stayed there they put me in a room on top of the parking garage."

"Oh," she replied, "that is the Pavilion Tower."

Oh la dee da. In any event, although the room and especially the comewhat cramped bathroom are on the small side, you can't beat the value: we got two nights Saturday and Sunday for a total of about $60, tax included. Good luck getting just the Saturday night for that price anywhere else in town.

And guess what? Atop a parking garage, you get some fantastic views of Vegas. The balcony runs around the perimeter of the structure, so from one side you look past the historic El Cortez sign (the south entrance is pretty much unchanged since the 1940s) down Fremont Street, on another side you have a nice view of the Strip, from yet another you look down on Container Park and the abandoned Western Casino and the Arts District, and from yet another you look out over the Valley. The view from our window was...well, the neighbors; turns out there are also rooms along a corridor that bisects the top floor. It may not be the private terrace we had at the Cosmopolitan, but it's damned handy when one of you doesn't smoke and the other does; just open the door and step outside.

Other things we liked about the El Cortez:

• One of the marks of a great hotel staff is how they deal with problems. When we came to check in, it turned out the agent had made my reservation for the wrong date; the night before we arrived, in fact. Our registration clerk not only managed to get us in on a Saturday night, and for Sunday as well, but for a lower rate than we'd been quoted over the phone.

• Yes, our room was small, but ah, the little amenities. After all the fancy hotels we'd stayed in on and off the Strip, they were the first to provide a newspaper in the room; not one paper, in fact, but two. Well, if you consider Gambling Today a newspaper. Or, for that matter, if you consider USA TODAY a newspaper. Free coffee in the room, which may not seem such a big deal until you consider the big-name hotel on the Strip that required you to buy it from the mini-bar. And whereas the big Strip hotels have a minimal line-up of television channels, the better to keep you out of your room and out on the casino floor, the El Cortez has The Movie Channel. Hell, my cable line-up back home doesn't have The Movie Channel.

• Don't want a tiny room on the rooftop of a garage? There are always the Vintage rooms in the main casino hotel. Want something fancy-schmancy? The El Cortez now has Cabana Suites, having taken over the Ogden House across the street and dollied it up something special. And while once upon a time I had to cross the street and use the wi-fi in the lobby of the Cabana Suites, as of February 1, free wi-fi is available in all of their rooms. 

• Check-out time: Noon!

• The Flame Steakhouse comes highly recommended, and the check-in packet had a coupon for a free bottle of wine with your dinner there. The American Casino Guide has a 50% off coupon, as well.

• Gaming? El Cortez is a favorite with the locals, having won awards for Best Blackjack...they brag about their 3:2 payouts on all blackjacks, even at single-deck. Yes, they really do have 25-cent roulette like Frommers says. And if you look for it, you can find the Holy Grail of video poker machines: a 10/7 pay table. Honest.

• Karaoke!

• I understand some of the other downtown hotels also have inexpensive rates that will get you some really nice rooms (such as the Plaza and the billions' worth of furnishings it picked up for a song, presumably), but the El Cortez has a coupon in the American Casino guide that gets you a special rate of $30 and a buy-one-night-get-one-free offer. $15 a night? See you there!